Weekly outlook for financial markets 8 to 12 October

Monday, October 8th


All Day – Eurogroup Meeting: The Eurogroup Meeting will be held in Brussels and the EU ministers of finance will meet and converse about the recent political and monetary changes in Europe

11:00– German Industrial Production: This report will present the developments in the industrial production of the German for August; in the previous report the German industrial production rose by 1.3% (M-O-M) during July

00:30 – Japan Current Account: this report will show the changes in the difference between exports and imports for Japan during last month; this news may affect the strength of the Japanese Yen

Tuesday, October 9th

08:30 – ECB President Speaks: Mario Draghi will talk in Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament, in Brussels. In his speech he might refer to the future monetary steps the ECB. This speech might affect the Euro to US dollar exchange rate

09:30 – Great Britain Manufacturing Production: this report will present the yearly rate of GB’s manufacturing production for August; in the last report regarding July the index rose by 3.2% (M-2-M); this news may affect the British Pound

Wednesday, October 10th

All Day – European Council Meeting: In the European Council Meeting the EU ministers of finance will meet and talk about the recent monetary developments in Europe

05:00 – SNB Chairman Jordan Speaks: Swiss National Bank President will give a speech. This speech might affect the Swiss franc currency

Tentative – China New Loans: This report will report the recent changes in China’s new loans given during the recent month. According to the last report, the total loans increased  as the People Bank of China BOC had cut the interest rate and eased the restrictions on commercial banks regarding new loans; this report is another indicator for the economic progress of China

15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Report: the EIA (Energy Information Administration) will publish its weekly update on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on October 5th; in the recent weekly update for September 28th, stockpiles fell again by 2.4 million bl to 1,796 million bl

18:00 – U.S 10 Year Bond Auction: the U.S government will issue another bond auction; in the recent bond auction, which was held at the second week of September, the average rate reached 1.76%

00:50 –Minutes of the recent Japanese monetary policy meeting: Following last week’s BOJ monetary policy meeting – the Bank members decided to leave the interest rate at 0 to 0.1 percent and didn’t expand its stimulus– the Bank of Japan will publish the minutes of last week’s meeting. The minutes may offer some insight behind the Bank’s latest decision that could affect the Japanese yen and consequently commodities prices

02:30 – Australia Employment Report: in the recent report regarding August 2012 the rate of unemployment edged down to 5.1%; the number of employed (seasonally adjusted) slightly fell by 8,800 people; the number of unemployed decreased by 10,600 during August compared with July‘s numbers. This report could affect the Australian dollar

Tentative –OPEC Monthly Report: this report will show the main developments in crude oil and natural gas’s supply and demand worldwide; the report will also refer to the developments in the production of OPEC countries during September 2012; this news may affect oil prices

Thursday, October 11th

All Day – G7 Summit: the G7 Summit will be held in Tokyo in which the ministers of finance of the G7 will talk about the recent financial developments in the leading economies. In the Summit the ministers may talk about the “fiscal cliff” in the U.S and the European debt crisis. If there will be big headlines from this Summit it may have some effect on the financial markets

All Day – IMF Meetings: the IMF Meeting will span over three days

13:30 –Canadian Trade Balance: In the recent report regarding July 2012, exports fell by 3.4% and imports declined by 2.2%; as a result, the trade deficit expanded from a $1.9 billion deficit in June to $2.3 billion deficit in July; this report may affect the Canadian dollar which tends to be strongly correlated with prices of commodities

13:30 –American Trade Balance: This monthly report for August 2012 will show the recent changes in imports and exports of goods and services to and from the U.S, including commodities such as oil, natural gas and gold; according to the recent American trade balance report regarding July 2012 the goods and services deficit edged up during the month to $42 billion

13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report:  this report will refer to the weekly shifts in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on September 28th; in the latest report the jobless claims rose by 4k to 367,000; this upcoming weekly report may affect the U.S dollar and consequently the prices of commodities

15:00 – FOMC member Stein Speaks: The title of the speech is “Evaluating Large-Scale Asset Purchases

15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage Update: the EIA weekly update of the U.S. natural gas market will pertain to the latest news in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of October 5th; in the previous weekly update, natural gas storage increased by 77 Bcf to 3,653 Bcf

19:00 –U.S. Federal Budget Balance: this upcoming publication will present the changes in the U.S federal balance for September 2012; this report indicates the government debt growth and thus may affect the U.S dollar. In the recent report regarding August the deficit rose by $190 billion to a deficit of $1,164 billion for the fiscal year of 2012; this is a decrease of 5% compared to 2011

Friday, October 12th

10:00– Euro Area Industrial Production: This report will present the changes in the industrial production of the EU for August; in the recent report the EU industrial production rose by 0.6% (M-O-M) during July

13:30 – U.S. Producer Price Index: This report will show the progress in the PPI during September 2012, i.e. the inflation rate from the producers’ stand point. In the recent report regarding August this index for finished goods hiked by 1.7% compared with July’s rate and rose by 0.5% in the last 12 months; this news might affect commodities prices

14:55 – UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary): University of Michigan will issue its preliminary consumer sentiment report; this survey could offer another insight to recent developments in U.S consumers sentiment about the economy; last time the sentiment index increased again to 79.2

17:35 – FOMC member Lacker’s Speech: The title of the speech is “Challenges to Economic Growth

Tentative –IEA Monthly Oil Report: this upcoming monthly update will present an updated (as of September) outlook and analysis for the global crude oil and natural gas market for 2012 and 2013

Saturday, October 13th

Tentative –China’s Trade Balance: according to the recent monthly report, China’s trade balance rose to a $26.7 billion surplus; if the surplus will further expand, it could indicate that China’s economic growth is rising and thus may positively affect prices of commodities.

Dollar and precious metals at a glance

Key currency exchange rates Friday, compared with late Thursday in New York:
Dollar vs: Exchange Rate Pvs Day
Yen 78.69 78.50
Euro $1.3025 $1.3018
Pound $1.6140 $1.6185
Swiss franc 0.9300 0.9308
Canadian dollar 0.9790 0.9807
Mexican peso 12.7968 12.7556
Metal Price (troy oz.) Pvs Day
NY Merc Gold $1778.60 $1794.10
NY HSBC Bank US $1775.00 $1791.00
NY Merc Silver $35.516 $35.041

US rate on 30-year mortgage hits record 3.36 pct.

WASHINGTON  Average U.S. rates on fixed mortgages fell to fresh record lows for the second straight week. The declines have led more homeowners to refinance, a trend that could help jumpstart the economy.
Mortgage buyer Freddie Mac said Thursday that the rate on the 30-year loan dropped to 3.36 percent. That's down from last week's rate of 3.40 percent, which was the lowest since long-term mortgages began in the 1950s.
The average on the 15-year fixed mortgage, a popular refinancing option, dipped to 2.69 percent, down from last week's record low of 2.73 percent.
Rates are falling after the Federal Reserve started buying mortgage bonds to help strengthen a housing recovery that began earlier this year. The Fed plans to continue the program until there is substantial improvement in the job market.
Sales of both previously occupied and newly built homes are up from last year. Home prices are rising more consistently. And builders are more confident in the market and are starting to build more homes.
Lower rates are also driving more people to refinance. Mortgage applications surged 16.6 percent last week, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported Wednesday. Of those applications, 83 percent were to refinance existing loans.
Growth in refinancing could help the broader economy. When people refinance their mortgages at lower interest rates, their monthly payments typically decline. That leaves them with more money to spend. Consumer spending drives nearly 70 percent of economic activity.
Still, some economists question whether further decline in rates will make much of a difference. The average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage has been below 4 percent since early December. Yet home sales remain below healthy levels. And most people who can qualify have likely already taken advantage of the lower rates.
Many people who would like to refinance or buy a home can't because they fail to meet stricter lending requirements or don't have enough money to make a down payment.
To calculate average rates, Freddie Mac surveys lenders across the country on Monday through Wednesday of each week.
The average does not include extra fees, known as points, which most borrowers must pay to get the lowest rates. One point equals 1 percent of the loan amount.
The average fee for 30-year loans was 0.6 point, unchanged from last week. The fee for 15-year loans slipped to 0.5 point from 0.6.
The average rate on one-year adjustable-rate mortgages fell to 2.57 percent from 2.60 percent. The fee for one-year adjustable rate loans held steady at 0.4 point.
The average rate on five-year adjustable-rate mortgages rose to 2.72 percent from 2.71 percent. The fee remained at 0.6 point.

News Summary: Commodities prices fall broadly

BROAD DECLINE: Most commodities prices fell Friday. Crude oil gave up $1.83 to $89.88 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Most other energy contracts, with the exception of wholesale gasoline, also fell.
GOLD SOLD: Gold edged further away from $1,800, a day after rising to its highest level since February. Gold for December delivery gave up $15.70 to $1,780.80 an ounce.
COFFEE CREAMED: Coffee prices slumped 4 percent, giving up 6.95 cents to settle at $1.6810 per pound

Fed choice mortgage bonds to bolster housing gains

WASHINGTON  The Federal Reserve structured its latest stimulus program around the purchase of mortgage bonds after members agreed that helping a nascent housing recovery was a good way to lift the broader economy.
Minutes of the Fed's Sept. 12-13 meeting released Thursday also show that most members now agree that tying a future increase in short-term interest rates to economic measures, such as a specific unemployment rate, could be effective. But members agreed to hold off on the change to work out the details.
After the meeting the Fed said it would keep buying mortgage bonds until the job market showed substantial improvement. The Fed also extended its plan to keep its benchmark short-term interest rate near zero until mid-2015 and left open the possibility of taking other steps.
The Fed has already purchased more than $2 trillion in bonds since the 2008 financial crisis. The latest program seeks to spend $40 billion a month to buy mortgage bonds without an end date set.
Many participants agreed at the meeting that more bond purchases would provide support to the economy by putting downward pressure on longer-term interest rates. That encourages more borrowing and spending, which drives growth.
According to the minutes, Fed members compared the effectiveness of buying Treasury bonds to that of mortgage-backed securities.
"Some participants suggested that, all else being equal, (mortgage bond) purchases could be preferable because they would more directly support the housing sector, which remains weak but has shown some signs of improvement of late," according to the minutes.
A few members expressed skepticism that additional bond purchases would help. And they raised concerns that more bond buying could increase the risk of higher inflation at a later time.
Mortgage rates have been below 4 percent all year. While home sales are rising, they remain well below healthy levels.
On Monday, Chairman Ben Bernanke defended the aggressive policies during a speech to the Economic Club of Indiana. The Fed needs to drive down long-term borrowing rates because the economy isn't growing fast enough to reduce high unemployment, Bernanke said.
He also sought to reassure investors about the Fed's timetable for keeping its short-term rate ultra-low. The plan doesn't mean the Fed expects the economy to be weak through 2015, he said, noting that policymakers plan to keep rates low well after the economy strengthens.

Today's oil price

$89.92 per barrel

Daily change of 1.59 ( 1.74% )

Oil Quote Updated Oct-07-12 2:00 PM